Biden-Putin talks over Ukraine tensions triggers mix expectation

US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin are due to hold a highly anticipated video meeting on Tuesday amid escalating tensions over Ukraine.

Ahead of the talks, Biden is set to consult by phone with European allies on Monday evening about Russia’s troop buildup on the Ukraine border, with a view to coordinate messaging and potential economic sanctions against Moscow.

“We have a path forward that would impose significant and severe harm on the Russian economy” if Russia were to invade Ukraine, said White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki on Monday

Washington and Kyiv say Moscow has massed troops near Ukraine’s borders and accused Russia of planning an invasion.

Moscow has denied any aggressive intentions and accused the West of provocation, particularly with military exercises in the Black Sea.

A key question hanging over the talks is whether Putin might actually start a cross-border offensive, or whether he is using the troops to pressure Biden for guarantees Ukraine will never join NATO.

A senior White House official said on Monday that Washington would give a “positive response” to a potential request by allies to boost its military presence in Eastern Europe in the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine.

If President Vladimir Putin “moved in, there would be an increasing request from eastern flank allies and a positive response from the United States for additional forces and capabilities and exercises,” the official said.

Another administration official also said that the US has not determined whether Putin has made a final decision on a possible invasion. Still, Biden in Tuesday’s call intends to make clear to the Russian leader that there will be a “very real cost” should Russia choose to invade, the official said.

Biden also is scheduled to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the coming days after his call with Putin, the administration official said.

Earlier, the Kremlin said earlier on Monday that Moscow is not expecting “breakthroughs” from the call.

The Kremlin said last week that Putin would seek binding guarantees from Biden precluding NATO’s expansion to Ukraine. Biden and aides have indicated no such guarantee is likely.

US officials and former American diplomats say Ukraine’s military is better armed and prepared today than in the past, and that sanctions threatened by the West would do serious damage to the Russian economy.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, during his daily conference call with reporters, said on Monday that US-Russian relations are in “a rather dire state” but that the Kremlin looks forward to hearing what Biden has to say.

“I think President Putin will hear these proposals with great interest. And we will be able to see how much these (proposals) would be able to defuse tensions,” Peskov told Russia’s state TV station Channel One later on Monday.

Besides Ukraine, Biden and Putin are also expected to address cybersecurity, Iran’s nuclear program, and other issues of mutual concern.

Meanwhile, there has been a lot of tough-talking on the US side if Putin flips. Biden on Friday pledged to make it “very, very difficult” for Putin to take military action in Ukraine and said new initiatives coming from his administration are intended to deter Russian aggression.

“What I am doing is putting together what I believe to be will be the most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Mr. Putin to go ahead and do what people are worried he may do,” Biden told reporters.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Euronews that Washington would “respond” if Russia acted “recklessly” over Ukraine. The West has threatened the Kremlin with the toughest sanctions yet if it launches an invasion of Ukraine.

Kyiv and Washington accuse Moscow of massing tens of thousands of troops on the border and of drawing up plans to invade.

The Kremlin said earlier that President Putin will seek binding guarantees precluding NATO’s expansion to Ukraine during a planned call with his US counterpart.

Ukraine is refusing to give up its aim to join NATO, as well as give any “security guarantee” to Russia, the country’s foreign minister said on Friday.

Dmytro Kuleba also told AFP he wanted other Western nations to do the same. He called on the United States and its North Atlantic allies to reject Moscow’s demands for easing tensions along the Russia-Ukraine border.

“I reject this idea that we should guarantee anything to Russia. I insist: it’s Russia which should guarantee that it will not continue its aggression against any country,” he said, speaking on the sidelines of the OSCE summit in Stockholm.

An agreement by Ukraine to abandon its goal of joining NATO “is not an option”, Kuleba said, stressing that NATO and EU membership is in the Ukrainian constitution.

The minister added that it was “absolutely inappropriate” for Russia to exert any influence on decisions taken by a sovereign country like Ukraine, or an international organisation like NATO.

Ukraine’s defence minister told parliament on Friday the number of Russian troops in the area was estimated to be 94,300. Oleksii Reznikov said intelligence suggested a “probability of a large-scale escalation” by Russia in late January.

He added that Ukraine would not do anything to provoke Russia but is prepared to respond in case of an attack.

But Moscow has insisted it has no such intention and accused Ukraine and its Western backers of making up the claims to cover up their own allegedly aggressive motives.

Moscow has warned that any presence of NATO troops and weapons on Ukrainian soil represents a “red line”. The Kremlin says it is concerned that Kyiv might use force to reclaim control of the country’s rebel east.