Fitch subsidiary win report for Tinubu unrealistic_ PDP, LP kicks

The recent prediction by Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, may win the forthcoming presidential election in 2023 has drawn mixed reactions from the frontline parties.

Reminiscing, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research, the subsidiary of Fitch, said in its recent report that the former Lagos State Governor had a higher possibility of winning but predicted that the country might slip into political unrest following that outcome.

The global rating company also predicted that a win for the APC candidate will likely trigger sentiments of perceived marginalisation among Christians while supporters of his opponents may take to the streets to question the credibility of the electoral process.

Reacting, the chief spokesperson for APC Presidential Campaign Council, Festus Keyamo said, “We have always known the demography they (agencies) use. That is our own calculation. We always knew Asiwaju is the candidate to beat and we also know that all these projections by some other groups are not realistic.

Meanwhile, there have been a flurry of reactions trailing the Fitch prediction as the ruling APC said its candidate would work to abort the predicted post-election unrest.

The Atiku/Okowa Presidential Campaign Organisation of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP), on Saturday dismissed the Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research report saying it is unrealistic.

But in their separate reactions, the LP argued that Fitch derived its results from outdated research methods, while the Atiku-Okowa Campaign Organisation said the report was speculative.

National Publicity of the Labour Party, Arabambi Abayomi said that the International Research body failed to carry out thorough research on the true opinions of Nigerians to understand their feelings and frustrations this time around.

Arabambi said the research was carried out without an in-depth understanding of the true feelings of Nigerians, who he said no longer trust the ruling APC that has placed the country’s economy on autopilot.

“Like football, permutations no longer win the game and it is not over until it is over. Without going into details of the research which gave victory to the candidate of the APC, I will like to add that the world has moved beyond bookmakers for electoral victory.

“A case in point is how the APC fell in Edo and Osun states, despite their rigging machines that have been successful in the past,” he explained.

He commended INEC and the National Assembly for the passage of the amended electoral laws, which he described as a game changer.

He said, “with these provisions and increased political awareness among Nigerians, the APC should begin to write its handover notes to Mr. Obi.”

Reacting to the claim that Obi has no structure, Arabambi cited “the recent election in Kenya, where Raila Odinga fell flat at the poll despite the support from the incumbent, Mr. Kenyatta, who abandoned his vice, Williams Ruto.

He said: “The just concluded Kenya elections, women got elected into the parliament and won governorship seats as against the tradition.

“A big shocker awaits the bookmakers as Peter Obi is ready to prove them wrong,” he added.

In his reaction, the spokesman of the Atiku/Okowa Presidential Campaign Organisation, Mr. Kola Ologbondiyan said the Fitch’s report was “merely contrived, imaginary and completely illusory; “It is a trivial opinion of ignorant interlopers which does not conform with any empirical or substantiated indicators regarding the direction of the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria

“While we do not want to conclude on the opinion already widely held in the public space that the report was procured or not emanating officially from Fitch, especially, given the desperation and devious antecedents of the Tinubu Campaign Organisation and the All Progressives Congress (APC), it is, however, important to state that these conjectures are the direct opposite of the reality on the ground,” he explained.

He said: “Contrary to the report being peddled by the APC, Asiwaju Tinubu is battling with trust issues, stamina concerns, massive open rejection by the majority of voters across the country, a mass exodus from his APC into PDP due to the abysmal failures of his party in addition to his (Tinubu’s) confessed selfish motives for being in the presidential race.

“In reality, unlike Atiku Abubakar, Tinubu has no strong, organic and reliable political base anywhere in the country and cannot get the required 25 per cent in the majority of the states of the federation.

“Across the north, the APC presidential candidate does not have a stable political structure with the daily decamping of hordes of Nigerians in the region who voted for President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 and 2019 now crossing over to the PDP to support Atiku Abubakar in the 2023 elections.

“In the south, Asiwaju Tinubu has no solid base in the South-South and South East where he has been roundly rejected. Even in the South-west, the former Lagos State governor has been demystified as evidenced in his party’s devastating loss in the last Governorship election in Osun State; a state considered to be his ancestry home, to the PDP,” he explained.

The spokesperson for APC Presidential Campaign Council, Keyamo, warned that presidential candidates of all political parties must be willing to congratulate the winner of the 2023 elections if the country hoped to avert the imminent political unrest predicted by Fitch Ratings.

“But I am saying this with all sense of humility that Asiwaju is a massive unifier. I just want to say that the talks of unrest and perceived marginalization are what Asiwaju will work on. He will make every single part of this country, every tribe and religion feel wanted. We have absolutely no fear about this at all.

“I think the press should begin to educate all actors in the field of play on what they call sportsmanlike behaviour. This is the time to dedicate to our supporters the need to behave like sportsmen by ensuring that we congratulate those who win and for the losers to join hands with those who have won for nation-building. That’s all.