Japanese births hit 686,061 in 2024 representing first time low since 1899

Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare says the number of Japanese births last year dropped below 700,000 for the first time since statistics were first compiled in 1899.

The health ministry said 686,061 babies were born to Japanese nationals in 2024, down 41,227 from the previous year. The number has fallen for nine years in a row.

Earlier, the welfare ministry had proposed that the preliminary number of births in Japan for 2024 is about 720,000. That’s 37,643 fewer births or 5 percent less than in 2023 and the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research had estimated that the figure would not drop to the 680,000 level until 2039.

The ministry says the number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime fell to a record low of 1.15 last year, down 0.05 points from 2023.

The number of deaths in the country was 1,605,298 in 2024, up 29,282 from the previous year and a record high.

As a result, the overall population decline stands at 919,237, the largest-ever decrease.

The ministry attributes the decline in births to smaller younger generations and the tendency for people to marry and have children later in life. It expressed a sense of crisis about years of sharp declines in births, and said it would continue to take measures to stop it.

Japan experienced a postwar baby boom from 1947 to 1949. More than 2.69 million babies were born in 1949 alone — a record high.

But the number of births began to steadily decrease from around 1974 and dipped below 1 million in 2016. It has continued to fall ever since.

The welfare ministry cites a number of reasons for the decline, including fewer young people, more people choosing to remain single or getting married later in life, and fewer marriages during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The ministry says it’s striving to create an environment that makes it easier for young people to earn a higher income as well as balance childcare and work so they become more willing to start a family.

Many parents in Japan believe high education and housing costs are twin reasons for the decline in birth.

In a 2021 survey conducted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, nearly 80% of couples said education had a considerable impact on the family budget, while more than 20% said they could only afford a small house.

Local government support for couples raising children is gradually increasing nationwide.

Housing issues can be a major reason for couples to give up having more than one child.

Izumi Kotori, 33, and her husband are raising a toddler. They’re renting a small 38-square-meter house for 100,000 yen a month. Desiring a second child, they’re now looking for a larger house to rent.

But a larger house means a monthly rent increase of about 40,000 to 60,000 yen, which doesn’t seem affordable to them. They’re also wary about the cost of education.

They’ve discussed the possibility of moving out of the city to find more affordable housing, but remote work isn’t possible in their fields of employment.

Considering the financial burden that accompanies having another child, Izumi says she might have to give up on the idea.

Again, a 2021 survey by the Finance Ministry’s policy research institute suggested that couples are more willing to have a second child if they can live in a larger house and spend fewer hours commuting.

The survey showed the chance of a couple having a second child grew by 3 percent for every square-meter increase in a home’s size.

The survey also showed that the chances of a couple having a second child decreased by 4 percent for every 10-minute increase in the husband’s commuting time.

Katsumata emphasizes the importance of housing space for couples with children. She notes experts say government and corporate support is necessary to create an environment conducive to people having more children, and that action should be taken quickly.

As a leeway, vacant houses are attracting attention as a way to resolve cramped housing issues.

The ministry of internal affairs says the number of vacant houses is on the rise, reaching a record high of over 9 million in 2023. Tokyo has the largest number at around 900,000, accounting for 10 percent of the total.

One Japanese company rents out vacant houses that are older than 30 years to couples with children.

Upsizing from a one-bedroom dwelling to a three-bedroom house gives families more than twice the space so there’s plenty of room for children’s toys, play spaces and clothes.