Nigerias’ Presidential Election: polling agency predicts Peter Obi winner of 2023 Presidential election

A top-rated Nigerian intelligence company, Stears, has disclosed that the Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, is the most universally-accepted candidate in the presidential race.

The polling agency findings is premised on the conduct of a public opinion polls for the 2023 cycle capturing the four frontline candidates in the presidential contest.

According to the poll analysis, Peter Obi is the candidate that achieves at least 25% of the vote in the most geopolitical zones (5 out of 6) amongst voters that declared their candidate preference. He leads the All Progressive Candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu (4 out of 5), while Atiku Abubakar, of the Peoples Democratic Party, only secures 25% of the vote in two (2) geopolitical zones.

Recall that some earlier polls conducted by other statistical agencies had rated Obi as favourite to clinch the ticket. ANAP polls conducted between September and December 2022 twice penciled Obi as ahead of other frontline candidates.

Again, Nextier’s polls forecasted as well that the Labour Party presidential flagbearer will win the 2023 presidential election.

But what stands out the polling of Stears is the huge sample size, engaging over 6200 Nigerians as respondents. This sampled population size makes it the Nigerian poll with a higher degree of potency with a minimal error margin.

Also Stears solved a problem that has been a limitation on all other previous polls, making truly a ground breaking poll.

Explaining this problem now solved, Michael Famoroti, Head of Intelligence & Co-Founder at Stears, said, “simple analysis of the poll results puts Peter Obi in the lead with 27% of all votes, ahead of Bola Ahmed Tinubu (15%) and Atiku Abubakar (12%). This is aligned with the results of other polls; however, it is hard to draw definite conclusions without examining the large portion of respondents who do not provide a candidate preference-a proportion as high as 50% in previously released polls. Where other polls have been inconclusive due to the large share of silent voters, Stears’ proprietary model is able to provide answers by predicting the most likely candidate for silent voters.”

Stears’ predictive model assigns 43% of undeclared votes to Tinubu, suggesting that most who were unwilling to reveal their votes were BATified. Despite this, Peter Obi still remains ahead of all other frontline runners, when the reassigned silent voters are added to the declared voter count.

The survey according to Stears’ report shows that Nigerians vote along religious lines, although the respondents would not admit to it.

The only geographical region where Peter Obi failed to secure 25% of the vote is the North-West, where the presence of Rabiu Kwankwaso means that votes are most evenly split in the region.